Did the depression of the 1930s even happen? A tree falling in the night?



I got all the books out of the library about the 1930s depression. (No nuke blasts necessary to cause that depression, just govt induced credit creation -- and then the inevitable contraction). It wasn't hard there were just 7 books on the NZ depression!! Think! There are whole shelves of books on Mokos, not that Mokos are not important, but the worst economic time in history has 7 books -- it's a coverup for the myth that socialism and Keynesian policy worked, but that is another story.
And one of those 7 books was just some poems written in the 30s in Australia. Je3 sus1! (application of Chinese tones to make an Irish accent that transforms the Lord's name into a curse word.) Anyway, Jesus! the food never made it into town! Farmers let food rot because the transportation cost more than it was worth (and no-one else had the specie to pay). Auckland rioted, a mob smashed every window in Queen St one day in 1932. How valuable is the NZD, paper as it is, under those circumstances?

The 0.10 is not my highest probability forecast, but it is a possibility. The stock market elliottwave count is a larger degree than the 1929 crash, larger than anything in recorded history. (the 1720 South Sea/Mississippi bubbles are closest but finance was a tiny part of the economy then -- weird how South Sea + Mississippi is "Gulf of Mexico worst bubble": I'm doing my own predictive linguistics).

Anyway, the bad news is already out -- the world banking system is entirely bankrupt, and our leaders are imbeciles that can only make things worse. Look at the unfucking believable amounts of debt/"money" that was created since WWII ("money" as we think credit is money, whereas as JP Morgan testified to Congress "Gold is money and nothing else") -- this tidal wave of phony credit breaking will wash over every fake construction of finance and take out some true ones as well. "Asset" values plunge, trade stops. It will be chaos, the end of the financial world as we know it. It is just a matter of time.

I will give you a NZD 0.10 scenario. Imagine the credit contracted world in chaos. Who is going to want to hold the NZ dollar? All those Japanese housewives? Military power backs a currency. USofA has that, we don't. Why does NZ sell off as risky assets sell off -- NZD is a high beta "asset". When the Dow hits 800 points in 2012, doesn't the correlation of (NZD, Dow) make us 0.10? ha ha he he he! (mad scientist delirious laughter).

But seriously, everyone I've ever known including me underestimates what can occur in financial markets. No-one learns from looking at a few long-term graphs.

But my best guess is that 58 holds, and I sure don't want it to go any lower for a while. There is a long-term H&S bottom that may work here.

I guess there is only one answer and that answer is always gold. (Gold back over $NZ1800 approaching all time high -- an oz was 1575 about a month ago).

1 comment:

  1. So my dear friend Dani said:

    Squire,
    Now it looks like you've got your excuse to go back to the big smoke and bottle ":)

    You should chronicle all these and make your book on the impending NZ recession the 8th Book on the shelf, assuming that if your scenario holds, someone will still be interested in reading about the calamity that came to pass.

    You are talking about Amaggedon and it is spoiling my nice cup of morning tea! (In the movies, here is where I should slap you a bring you back to earth, if I am not so jittery myself ":)) Guns, we need guns!!!

    You have a nice day.

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